Subject: Ross Rant Sept 21
Some additional stats: Real median household income in 2019 rose by $4,378 to $68,709. That one year rise is 50% greater than occurred in all eight years of Obama Biden. Median household income for blacks rose 7.9% and Latinos 7.1%. whites 5.7%. So next time Biden says Trump is bad for minorities, here are the data. In 2019 full time employed rose. Median income rose by 7.8% for women. In 2015 labor participation declined 2%, and under Trump rose 2.2% for 25-54 years olds in Q1 2020. The poverty rate dropped to 10.5% in 2019, the lowest since 1959. Black poverty dropped 2.0%. Child poverty dropped to 14.4% from 18% in 2016. The decline in 2019 was two times the decline as during the entire Obama Biden years. The percentage of workers earning more than $200,000 rose in 2019 to 10.3% vs 8% in 2016. So when the Dems say Trump is bad for workers, these are the real numbers. New business formations applications doubled in the first two years of Trump vs Obama Biden due to much less regulation plus tax reductions. Employment became so robust that companies even hired felons and disabled who had not had previous jobs. At the beginning of 2020 there were well over 7 million unfilled jobs and nobody left to hire. This is why wages at the lower end rose so much more than at white collar management levels. So as jobs continue to return, and the GDP number for Q3 is over 30%, Trump will be well ahead of Biden’s record of slow growth over eight years. It is the economy stupid.
The stock market seems to be rotating to more traditional growth stocks like industrials and a little away from the big tech names and Tesla, all of which had gotten to silly valuations. It is likely that the tech stocks will decline and muddle along for a while, but if you are a long term investor like me, you still have tremendous upside over the next several years in the big tech names. Just be patient. Those stocks will face regulatory pressures, but stocks like APPL and ADBE are not targets of Congress like the social media and search sites. APPL has lost 22% from its recent high. It is probably a good buying opportunity now if you are a long term holder. The reality is, the economy is doing quite well, and some companies will show excellent earnings in October, and housing and autos are doing very well. The Fed is keeping rates at zero, so there is no good alternative other than US stocks. Expect volatility in October. However if the Dems win the election then that is a whole different case. Don’t get all caught up in polls. They are usually wrong as we all know.
Early in the year I predicted Ginsberg would die soon, but just did not think she would live as long as she did. This will be a giant issue on the election now. The fight will make Kavanaugh look like kindergarten. That seat controls the court until the next vacancy. If Trump wins, the court is locked to be strict construction adherence to what the constitution says, and not a living document subject to what is “in vogue” at the moment. If Trump wins and the R’s control the Senate, the court will be conservative for a generation, or until the Dems win control of the White House and Senate and pack the court. Here is the conundrum. If they vote before the election Collins, Gardner and Tillis have to choose party, or maybe losing, if they wait to vote, the court needs to have all 9 members to deal with the legal battle the Dems will wage if Trump wins. The moderate Republicans need to say they need more time until after the election to consider the vote. This is really messy. You can expect massive demonstrations either way McConnell does it. They will need an army of law enforcement to protect the court and capitol buildings from violence. The Dems have already said they plan to pack the court if they win the Senate. Biden says he will nominate a black woman. That is blatant discrimination. Imagine if Trump said he is only going to nominate a white male. The Dems and press would go berserk. What happened to nominate the best qualified person. Maybe I am missing something , but Trump is the elected president until January 20, and as such he has the obligation to name a replacement justice, and the Senate has the obligation to vote on that person. If the president is barred from doing his duty because it is near the election in regard to a justice, is he also barred from carrying out his other duties which may also have great consequences, like doing more peace deals between the Arabs and Israel, or signing the budget, or negotiating a phase 4 of a stimulus bill. It has been done 29 other times with no complaint. We are about to enter a very dangerous few months that will make what recently occurred in Portland, Seattle and NY look not so bad. This election is now going to determine where the country goes. Everything is at stake in this election. Make sure you go vote, and do it in person. There are a lot of illegal games going to be played with mail in voting which is why the Dems are so adamant to have it.
If you think the reasons for more chaos has ended, wait a few days. Senator Johnson is going to release a major report on Hunter Biden, and it will directly impact Joe. It will be emails that show extensive corruption by the Biden family, and the emails are from the state department senior officer who testified before Congress and is non-partisan. It is an account of major conflicts -spelled corruption- about Biden. Graham will be releasing some new documents that show what was really happening at the FBI. That will be followed soon after with the Durham report which will come with indictments, and a scathing report on how the Dems and FBI tried to stage what amounted to a soft coup to remove Trump. Pelosi will try all sorts of ugly games to try to stop the SCOTUS vote. The Dems claim Trump is a threat to democracy, and in the next breathe they say they will end the filibuster, and pack the court, eliminate the electoral college, and make DC a state to try to assure forever control. The Dems have tried everything they can including the false dossier, fake impeachment, false threats to impeach Barr, Mueller with now wiped phones, and Adam Schiff lying. They have fed to press constant lies and false leads, and have done anything they can to undermine the duly elected president. That is why we have elections in a democracy. The Dems now realize Trump will get to shape the court, and they are at risk of losing this election and they will use mail in votes to try to cheat. This election will make 2000 look easy. Our democracy is truly under attack from the left and Pelosi is the general and the bartender from the Bronx is the colonel in the field.. There will be so much happening up until the election it will be mass chaos and incredible fake news stories of all sorts. Then we will have the election and a massive effort by Dems, especially in PA, WI and NV to show up with late ballots as they try to claim a change in the outcome. All this while the confirmation hearings are happening. And while all this is happening, there will be new riots and protests over the SCOTUS confirmation. And now Nancy says there could be a new impeachment case. China and Putin must be thrilled.
It began with the phony dossier paid for by Hilary. The false FISA warrants, Then Flynn is set up by the FBI to get him out of the White House because he has too good a network in intelligence areas. Then Mueller, followed by the press being fed a stream of lies by Schiff and others. This was accompanied by trying to get rid of Kavanaugh. Then there was Vindeman and impeachment. Now it is an irrational attempt to stop a legitimate SCOTUS confirmation, and new impeachment threats against Trump and Barr. The Dems have said they plan to end the filibuster and pack the court, and attempt to pack the future votes by adding DC and Puerto Rico as states, which may be illegal under the constitution. Add on the Dem control of big cities, and the rush to charge cops doing their job, but to not charge any rioters. The far left now has control of universities, and the press. Major steps for controlling the narrative and creating a grass roots force to take to the streets. The Dems have fed a race war starting with Obama and Holder in Ferguson, and by backing BLM, an avowedly Marxist group, and a refusal by mayors or governors to move against ANTIFA. Bernie campaigned on “we intend to transform America.” Do independent voters not understand that we are in the midst of an attempted takeover of the government by the far left headed by Pelosi. AOC and her squad are blatant anti-Semites, which goes along with the program, and which has lodged itself on campuses. They are also anti-religion. Shut places of worship, but open all sorts of other things. I am rarely, if ever, alarmist, but we are now in a real crisis for the country that must be stopped. I can’t wait for Durham and Ron Johnson to issue their reports. Biden is just the avatar they are using to front their efforts to mislead the big money donators that he is really moderate and that he will be a real president. Harris let it out-“In a Harris administration….”. What is it these donors do not understand. They are the same people who donate millions to universities that do not allow free speech, just to get their kid admitted or their name on a building. It all just proves that you can fool a lot of the people some of the time.
Merkel has a major decision to make very soon. Either go ahead with the Nordstream pipeline from Russia, or abandon it as the US and most of the EU demand, in light of the poisoning. The pipeline is critical for Putin. Trump is working to stop it. Next time Biden and the press claim Trump is a tool for Russia, ask about how come he is killing the project most key to Russia. The world is waiting to see what Merkel’s real position is. Even members of her own party say the pipeline needs to be stopped. Merkel has always been accommodating to Russia, believing it was better to play nice than to confront Putin for his misdeeds and threats against the EU border nations. Candidates to succeed her are against the pipeline. One major change is Trump is pulling troops out of Germany so the German policy of decades of having the US as a protector allowing Germany to play nice with Russia as a policy, is over. Even the invasion of Ukraine was not enough to give pause to German policy, but the poisoning, combined with Trump pulling out troops, has changed everything. Merkel needs to make a decision soon in the face of extensive opposition inside Germany and the EU and from Trump. So when the press says the US has lost all its allies, this is what they are talking about. Trump is not going along with bad policy by Merkel and making a public issue of it as he should. If Germany abandons the pipeline, there is an abundant supply of gas available from the US and other sources now. If Merkel goes ahead, Putin gets billions to spend on arms and espionage, and he holds Germany by a vise. All of the foreign policy establishment and press claiming Trump is doing a terrible thing, are locked into decades of a policy that allowed Germany to be defended by American taxpayer dollars while they spent little and used that money to build their export industries. Germany still refuses to come anywhere close to meeting its obligations to pay for its share of NATO while much of the rest of the EU is meeting it or getting close to do so.
What the Dems still don’t understand is that when you add layers of regulation, you add operating costs and reduce cash flow to increase wages, and when you raise taxes on corporations you reduce cash flow to pay wages and to expand the business, so you get less jobs. Many of you who now run, or ran companies, likely say- how can someone not understand these basics. Because none of them ever ran a business. They, like Biden, have been politicians all their lives. They have no clue what it means to meet a payroll, or to take a risk to expand the factory, or a product line. They just think you make too much profit off the sweat of workers, and you are over compensated for being successful. They get lifetime pensions and healthcare paid for with your tax dollars, but they think that is OK since they served the people! It is OK for Nancy to get her hair done and not wear a mask, but you better not open your beauty parlor and try to make money. It was not coincidence that new business formation was very slow under Obama Biden, and rose very rapidly after taxes were cut and regulation reduced. It is not hard to understand why there is such a shortage of affordable housing in CA. If you are a developer, the cost of excess regulation of residential development is estimated to be $70,000 per unit. I do not know if this number is accurate, and it might be higher, but having been involved in development in CA., the excess cost of any development is astronomical compared to most every other states. It is why the cost of operating a business in CA is so much higher than anywhere else other than NY. It is why several major Silicon Valley companies are now telling staff they are free to move elsewhere and work remote, but at a lower salary. The cost of living everywhere else is far lower than CA and NY. A friend just moved from a modest home in the Hamptons to a nice home north of Atlanta in a very nice upscale area. His property taxes went from over $10,000 to $1,000 for a similar sized home. Excess regulation and higher taxes hurts the people the Dems claim they are trying to help. They just do not understand how it works.
The last time Biden tried to run for president he had to drop out for extensive plagiarism -lies. Has that gone away? Trump campaign should resurrect all that since Joe accuses Donald of lying.
The first US death from the virus was Feb 23. So all the talk about what should have been done in Jan or Feb is BS since things did not get to pandemic definition until March. Deaths to confirmed cases in the US are 2.9% vs 3.1% across the world with the EU ramping up and the US moving down. US deaths vs total population 202,000 vs 327 million. Death rate is only .06%, and most are over 80 with comorbidity, and blacks, and nursing home residents disproportionately affected. Therefore, as I have been saying since spring, if you are a healthy white person under age 65, the chance of being hospitalized is tiny, and of dying is miniscule. Week of Sept 12 ages 0-17 hospitalizations .25 per 100,000. 18-49 1.3, 50-64 3.1 and over 65 5.6. Under 17 has been nearly zero the whole time. Over 65 has dopped from 32.5 per 100,000 in April 18 to 5.6 today. As treatments are improved, these death rates will decline further. The graph of hospitalizations in the US since July 25 has been a 45 degree angle down. Deaths have dropped quickly, and are down to only 674 per day. So we should reopen like Sweden, even if we all wear masks which seems to be pretty much being done now anyway, and all schools should be open for in-person classes like the rest of the world. There is always the anecdotal story of one young guy or kid dying, but it is one off and we do not know any of the medical data, nor where he was treated and what protocols were used by what quality of doctors. Kids and young people who otherwise seem to be healthy die every day from some disease or other. We need to get some perspective. If we take extra precautions with nursing homes and assisted living, and other vulnerable people, we could resume a near normal life and end the press fear mongering.
The next two weeks will decide the election.