3/03/2025

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Russia’s drive in one battlefront has cost it a staggering 1,800 combat vehicles, researcher finds©ANATOLII STEPANOV via Getty Images

• An open-source researcher documented stunning Russian losses in one yearlong assault in Ukraine.
• The losses occurred during Russian offensives to seize Avdiivka and now Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces have yet to make decisive tactical gains in the region.

An open-source researcher who tracks visually confirmed military losses in Ukraine published new findings indicating that Russia has lost more than 1,800 armored vehicles, tanks, and other pieces of heavy equipment in a single yearlong assault, a staggering figure that raises questions about Russia’s ability to continue its advance.

In February, Russia seized the town of Avdiivka, a longtime Ukrainian stronghold, after a monthslong campaign that contributed to “some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far,” according to British military intelligence.

Moscow’s losses — both in equipment and personnel — only continued to grow as it advanced in the western Donetsk region, an onslaught against Ukraine’s defended positions that contributed to the heavy toll in September; a US official recently said that month saw the highest Russian casualties in the entire war.

In early October, two key Ukrainian front-line towns, Vuhledar and Hrodivka, fell to Russia during its advance toward Pokrovsk, a strategic city serving as a road and rail hub to supply Ukrainian military outposts.

Despite the heavy equipment losses, Russian forces have yet to make concrete tactical gains in the region, advancing only about 25 miles toward the key Ukrainian city.

A new report by the Institute for the Study of War said the reported losses amounted to at least five divisions’ worth of combat vehicles, citing an open-source X account tracking visually confirmed Russian vehicle and equipment losses.

Russian forces have also lost rockets, antiaircraft systems, and drones in its offensive along the eastern front. This is a breakdown of the heavy losses that could jeopardize Russia’s ability to expand its battlefield gains.See more

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met in London this weekend. Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu via Getty Images© Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu via Getty Images

• European leaders held emergency talks to discuss support for Ukraine on Sunday.
• It came amid souring relations between the US and Ukraine, raising pressure on Europe to step up.
• One quick way to raise “game-changing” cash would be to seize $218 billion in frozen Russian assets.

Amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv, calls are growing for Europe to take an unprecedented step that could unlock billions in funding for Ukraine.

Some world leaders and politicians, including former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are urging European countries to seize the roughly $218 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets — now largely held in Brussels — and hand them to Ukraine.

“It is only fair that Russia should pay for the damage its war has caused,” Sunak wrote in an opinion piece for The Economist on Friday.

But such a move comes with risks.

US President Donald Trump having a tense exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Brian Snyder/REUTERS© Brian Snyder/REUTERS

The question of funding was a hot topic on Sunday as EU and UK leaders met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for emergency talks in London to discuss support for Kyiv — just days after the latter’s unprecedented Oval Office clash with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.

Trump and Vance berated the Ukrainian leader on Friday in front of reporters and cameras. Zelenskyy ultimately left the White House without finalizing a minerals deal that would give the United States access to Kyiv’s mineral wealth in exchange for investment and what Zelenskyy hoped would be security guarantees.

The situation has fueled questions over how Europe can step up to help aid Ukraine’s defense efforts should the United States reduce, or cut altogether, its support for the war-torn nation.

For Europe to make up the difference would be an expensive prospect and one that could come with political repercussions — which makes the potential to unlock $218 billion in non-taxpayer money all the more attractive.

“We’ve got all of these different countries with their own internal political battles, and their own internal budgets, all trying to find more cash — and we’re sitting on a game-changing amount of funding,” Heather Buchanan, the chair of the Athena Foundation, an economic policy advisory nonprofit that supports the move, told Business Insider.

Europe’s ace card?

The EU holds the majority of the roughly $300 billion in Russian funds frozen by the United States and international allies after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. The funds have been earmarked for rebuilding Ukraine in peacetime.

Some of the interest earned on those funds has been transferred to Ukraine as loans. The UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, and Ukraine’s finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, signed a deal on Saturday to deliver another £2.26 billion, or about $2.8 billion, to Ukraine from the accrued interest, also as a loan.

The UK’s foreign secretary, David Lammy, has backed calls to seize the funds. Wiktor Szymanowicz/Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images© Wiktor Szymanowicz/Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images

But there’s now growing support for a long-considered option: seizing those frozen funds, which would allow them to be transferred directly to Ukraine for use in its defense.

In December, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, called for the move — and it’s seen support in the past week from leaders in the UK, Estonia, Poland, and Finland.

On Saturday, a coalition of campaign groups and UK MPs brought together by the Athena Foundation called on the UK to get the ball rolling with the seizure of £25 billion, or about $31.4 billion, of Russian state assets now frozen in the UK financial system.

Adrian Karatnycky, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine in January that the full $300 billion in frozen assets could replace the US contribution to Ukraine for the next six or seven years if Trump were to cut support to Kyiv.

A nervous gambit

“The key blocker is that nobody wants to move alone,” Buchanan said.

But the White House’s recent moves have provided a “perfect storm” that is focusing minds, she added.

While many politicians are pushing for the move, some analysts warn that it should be a last resort because of the impact it could have on global economies.

For example, permanently confiscating Russian assets held in countries that aren’t at war with Russia could also “increase the risk perceived by several other countries,” Creon Butler, the director of Chatham House’s global economy and finance program, wrote last year.

Other countries — such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia — may “fear that at some point they could be subject to similar measures,” he wrote.

Sunak, writing for The Economist, has argued that those concerns are “overstated” and that this risk “can be contained.”

There’s also a debate among analysts over whether the assets should be kept available as a bargaining chip for any future peace talks.

Legal complications must also be considered, as the assets of a foreign nation are normally protected against seizure by a host country.

But the leading lawyer Paul Reichler previously argued to Congress that such protection falls apart when a host state carries out “egregiously wrongful conduct,” as he said Russia had.

“If Congress has the power to authorize the executive to freeze a foreign state’s assets, it must also have the power to authorize the executive to transfer them,” he said.

Buchanan told BI that such a move does require legislation but that “that’s what lawmakers are for,” adding that meeting a satisfactory legal standard could be brought about “quite quickly.”

A further worry is the prospect of retaliation by the Kremlin, whose State Duma is discussing a draft bill allowing it to confiscate foreign property in response to similar moves from “unfriendly countries,” Reuters reported.

Striking a psychological blow

Buchanan said passing the cash to Ukraine would send a “crystal clear” signal to Russia that this money isn’t coming back — potentially dealing a strong psychological blow to a country whose economy and labor market are already deeply strained by the war.

The question is whether Western leaders will take the leap.

“It’s just political will at this point,” she added.

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