KOMMONSENTSJANE – ROSS RANT – 10/04/2020

Then there is still Durham, which I still think is going to blow up a lot of top Obama admin people including Biden. It is a major mistake to not release it now. Some say release is a political decision, but I say not doing so is also a political decision in that it deprives the voters from critical information.

If AG Barr doesn’t release the crime information before the election and give all of the information to the people then they are also complicit in the Obama coup crime by not properly informing the people before the election. It is hard for people to believe what they have done to this country and the people must be informed BEFORE THE ELECTION.

******

Sent: Sunday, October 4, 2020 3:02
Subject: Ross Rant Oct 4

You could not write a great novel that would compare to the reality of 2020. And it is not over. The election is likely to be filled with confusion, lawsuits, and we will not know the winner for who knows how long.

Again, then there is still Durham, which I still think is going to blow up a lot of top Obama admin people including Biden. It is a major mistake to not release it now. Some say release is a political decision, but I say not doing so is also a political decision in that it deprives the voters from critical information.

None of this is helpful to investors since trying to forecast anything these days is very hard since the number of major unknowns is unprecedented. Just when you thought there were no more black swans, another flock lands. Take it day by day, and do not believe most of what you get from the media, and certainly not from online crap. And surely do not believe anything that comes out of Washington on either side. Truth is hard to come by these days.

Biden is now touting his economic plans, and he thinks that by saying Moody’s Analytics has reviewed it and sanctioned it, then it is valid. Reality is, Moody’s helped put the plan together, and has a strong Democratic liberal bias. It is possible there is a White House job promised to someone. I happen to have the full Moody’s report and analysis, and one on one direct discussion with the author of that report. Here is what Biden /Moody’s is laying out. I am using their words and report, and not making any of it up, other than my own commentary . If you are a Biden voter, take note of what you are voting for, and realize this is a base case by them, and if the Dems get control of both houses, it is just a start point. I believe you can find the Moody report on the Biden or Moody Analytics website

Here are some highlights you will also hear from Biden :

He will rejoin WTO and deal with China through more of the same dialogue through WTO that was used before Trump. That failed for many years, and there is no reason to think it will succeed now. He also will join TPP, and also talk to China through TPP, thinking now they will change their policies, even though he failed to get anything accomplished when he was VP and in Beijing. No more confronting China directly. He assumes China will change its ways through conversation by these organizations’ diplomatic discussions with them. That was a totally failed strategy until Trump changed the game. Their argument is that Trump accomplished little with the phase one deal, and so he failed. They ignore that the virus got in the way. They also ignore that Trump is now confronting China in the S China Sea, in shutting down spy operations on campuses and in corporations, and cutting off access to US tech. Don’t forget that while Biden was in Beijing holding talks, China gave Hunter Biden $1.5 Billion for his make believe private equity fund, plus he received millions more from others in China for unexplained reasons.

“Normalize” immigration. Specifically stated in plan–grant citizenship immediately to DOCCA people, and reopen the border to allow in “migrants and asylum seekers” from Latin America or anywhere. Back to before the wall policy. Assumption is, the economy needs immigrants to grow fully, so let them all in. Ignores that these are unskilled people and kids, and MS 13 criminals, and they go on welfare which will be made available to them easily and immediately. Adds little to the US economy other than more mouths to feed. Pass “sweeping new immigration laws.” Translation-open the borders, and shut down ICE. Letting in hundreds of thousands just adds low wage competition to US citizens.

New big spending programs on infrastructure redo of Obama shovel ready projects. Bridges, roads, water, windmills, charging stations. He will add clean energy programs to renovate 4 million buildings plus 2 million homes. By mandate I assume. Also cash for research on 5G, AI, and batteries. Instead of tax credits to private companies and R&D grants, they will be government run research programs. I am all for desperately needed infrastructure investments, but it needs to be in a combination of public private partnerships and some government only spending. It will take years to accomplish, and will not be some instant boost to the economy, nor instant job creator as Obama found out. Biden mistakenly assumes infrastructure spending will mean huge hiring immediately. The plan will be to spend $7.9 Trillion more over 4 years, than current spending levels. There will be $1.9 trillion more for pre-K-college, plus increased teachers’ pay. They owe a lot to the teachers unions for all those donations.

Free early education for all kids, free college and community college for anyone earning under $125,000, which is almost everyone, forgive student debt, more health care spending, child care, elder care, plus increased social security payments, plus housing subsidies. All of these are government run programs. We know how well they did running the VA. You might ask how is this all paid for. Simple-higher taxes on all of you, and on corporations. It is clear there is not enough tax money to cover all of this, plus what the Bernie people and far left add to the list. They state clearly that taxes will go up, but they say it is OK because “the people earning over $400,000 are not really impacted by higher taxes, and will go on spending and investing anyway just as they had been doing.” They actually admit plainly, this is a “wealth transfer from the rich and corporations, to the middle and lower classes.” They acknowledge big deficits every year, and especially in the early years to get to the goal of full employment using government debt and taxes to get there, instead of creating incentives for corporations to grow and hire, and new businesses to start up. They then go on to say that interest rates will rise to 4.5% on the ten year due to the growth in the economy and the spending, but it is OK due to low rates in early years. This ignores the long term result of massive deficits. They do not explain how interest on the national debt gets paid at 4.5% ten year rates without raising taxes even more, or making major reductions in defense spending. They do acknowledge that the flood of entitlements will be “a disincentive for work and savings”, but “that impact will be offset by the growth in the economy.” That seems to be a irreconcilable difference -we have disincentives to work, but people will still go back to work. We just saw what happened with the extra $600 which they claim, incorrectly, had no real impact on the incentive to work for less. Many companies now say they have job openings, but even the extra $300 is a disincentive to some, so jobs go unfilled.

They acknowledge that “stock prices will not grow much over ten years, and dividends will be negatively impacted by the higher taxes.” They acknowledge that corporate earnings will be negatively impacted, so stock prices will also be negatively impacted. Again seems irreconcilable in that if there are lower stock prices, that raises the cost of capital for investment, and lowers 401K values, which disincentivizes consumers to spend due to the negative wealth affect. Also means retirees living off dividends have less income, so need more government spending on social security and other things. Also means pension funds are in even more deficits and potential inability to pay. So you have lower incomes due to higher taxes and your stock portfolio no longer earns you good returns and your dividend income shrinks. They claim “demand not cost of capital drives investment,” so in their view the things I mention above are not an issue. My contention is if you tax profits heavily, and add a lot of regulation, and hold down stock prices, at the same time you raise the cost of production by higher minimum wages, then investment moves offshore. They dismiss more regulation as a problem or cost. They think the “Biden plan is perfect for the situation today” where they want to drive to full employment. The reality is there are many jobs open now but due to schools closed and the $300 unemployment supplement, it is harder to get people to fill the jobs. Wages are up 4.7% last month, but the press ignores that.

They also plan to have universal $15 minimum wage, like that is some magic number. It is too high in many parts of the country, so it raises the cost of production, which then leads to companies moving production to Asia, and Mexico, which raises unemployment, so calls for more government welfare spending. Also means higher inflation, and then higher interest rates to fight higher inflation, so lower stock prices and higher hurdles to get companies and individuals to invest less. So capital spending is inhibited as is productivity.

They fill their 18 million new jobs (there are only 15 million unemployed now) by letting in millions more immigrants including those unskilled, from wherever, who are then to be hired to build bridges and roads and windmills and charging stations. The entire plan depends on deficit spending forever, and much higher taxes on those who earn higher incomes. They predict the debt to be 120% of GDP in a few years. Then rise from there. The deficit will run around $3.2 Trillion per year until it becomes lower to negative $2.5 Trillion per year as the economy grows. Your kids will love the eventual impact of that. They actually say that low and middle income people will benefit from the “plethora of social programs” while higher income people and corporations pay “meaningfully more taxes”. So we tax the job creators, and investors, and give it to the takers who they admit “will have a disincentive to work or save” due to all the social entitlement programs. They also raise cap gains taxes to be the same as ordinary income rates on very high income earners. That will really incentivize investment. They also plan to eliminate many of the real estate industry tax breaks, and no more 1031 exchanges. The hurdle rate to build anything will be so high it will kill most projects. None of these people ever developed anything, nor ran a business where there is risk like development, or restaurants or retail, so they have no appreciation of why real estate has big returns in exchange for high risk. It is why they see no issue with landlords now eating the loss of income due to retailers and restaurants going out of business, or rents and mortgages not being collected.

Some other things that will impact many of you. Not only will your income taxes rise, but payroll tax of 12% will be applied to all earnings (I am trying to get the definition of earnings) over $400,000. So add 12% to your tax bill. On death, the unrealized gains in your portfolio will be taxed as opposed to step up. Itemized deductions will be reduced. But here is the good news, if you buy an electric car or an energy saving dishwasher you get some tax deduction. Wow. There will be a 15% minimum tax on corporations BOOK income. That is a huge costly change. In short, if you are high income, and if you have a sizable estate, or if you own a company or real estate, you get screwed. That money is being reallocated to pay for all sorts of entitlements and other clean new deal projects. So go invest and work harder so more of your effort can go to support everyone else. If you believe $4 Trillion of new taxes is going to cover all the things they will want to do, you are not understanding what is coming once the ems are in control. Bernie even came out and said it.

This is not everything, but it hits some of the major points of the Biden economic policy. I took these right out of the policy paper. You get the picture of why I am out of the market if the Dems win. I am better off with cash, even after taxes. Not losing money is better even if there is minimal return. If they get control, cap gains goes to 39% if you are very high income, or if you decide to liquidate some of your portfolio, so paying lower taxes now is better than 39% on top of losing principal. In addition they will end many tax breaks and bring back alternative minimum tax calculations. You are going to need to meet with your tax and estate advisors if Biden wins. If you own substantial real estate, you will need a lot of tax advice. Just look at it this way- there is a target on your back, and they have all the guns. Many of you thought you were rich. They intend to end that silly idea. Remember, Bernie is really a communist at heart, and AOC thinks rich is bad, so the Biden economic plan is just the start of the spending, and the elimination of individual wealth.

kommonsentsjane

About kommonsentsjane

Enjoys sports and all kinds of music, especially dance music. Playing the keyboard and piano are favorites. Family and friends are very important.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s