I am more convinced than ever that my probability premise is correct, that the total shut down of all areas of the country was a mistake based on medical speculation and incorrect models, and was driven by pressure from the academics and models, and political considerations that if Trump had not declared an emergency, and shut it all down, he would have been crucified.
Now a lot more real data is available. It is clear that almost every death was due to comorbidity. Most due to old age combined with comorbidity. For younger deaths, it was almost always comorbidity, especially among blacks, which is why they have been a disproportionate share of deaths. Not due to the virus, but due to lifestyle that led to diabetes and hypertension, and other things.
There is now also anecdotal evidence that the death rate is over stated. Pennsylvania deducted 300 deaths listed as virus, but now acknowledged to be other causes, but the patient also had tested positive for virus.
Several docs have now reported that they are being pressured to report death as due to virus when it was actually heart disease, high blood pressure, or diabetes, or other things that were accelerated by the virus, but the virus was not the real cause of death. There is no way to know if this is 500 or 5000.
It is common practice in nursing homes for years to list any condition the person has as the cause of death just to put something on the death certificate. I am now convinced from these anecdotal reports from docs that the death rate is over stated.
The real issue is proportion and perspective. If all you hear is 50,000 died, that sounds bad, until you put the numbers in perspective, and dig under the surface of the press reports trying to scare you. The press as usual provides no context.
Some active ER docs in CA ran an analysis. They did 5200 Covid tests, and had only 329 positive and few deaths. That means only 6% of those tested actually had the disease at the time of the test.
This is fairly consistent with the report from Cuomo in NY where the number was only 13.9% in the hotbed of the outbreak. So maybe 10% or less of everyone gets sick, but that can be reduced by good efforts to close off vulnerable people in self-isolation. 90%, or more, have no, or minimal effects. 98%-99% never get seriously ill and .5% of known cases, or fewer, die. Only 54,000 people out of 330 million total population die, and of those 98% are old, and with comorbidity, which may be the true cause of death.
Point being, most people do not have the virus, and those that do have it, get over it for the most part, unless they are very old, or have a comorbidity issue otherwise killing them anyway. Based on the random tests of how many got the disease is then extrapolated to show the real death rate is .5% or less, of those who contract the virus, and many docs who have studied this believe it is really lower if they can get a better denominator.
The docs conclusion, which I have been trying to put across for weeks- isolate the people with comorbidity issues, and let everyone else go back to work. Why not isolate the sick and vulnerable instead of the young and healthy. There are now simple tests of a prick of the finger, or spit in a tube, or temperature tests which companies can require workers to do every few days, and send home anyone who has symptoms. The people under 65 who are otherwise fully healthy, are statistically highly unlikely to die, or even get very sick from the virus, and almost zero children have died.
There is no count of who died because they did not get their heart surgery, cancer treatment, hypertension dealt with, or diabetes treatment. How much suffering was caused due to elective surgery like a knee replacement did not get done. There is no good outcome medically when procedures are delayed. The issue simply gets worse, and potentially more complicated.
The docs who did the study pointed out again, there is no count of how many extra died of suicide, drug overdose, abuse or stress related incidents due to no work and isolation. We do know that the suicide and help hotlines are overwhelmed now.
Many people who should have seen a doctor, did not, because they were told by the press and governors to be afraid to go to the doctor’s office, and telemed was not available, or sufficient. Bottom line is, almost no healthy people die of the virus, and shutting down the economy just exasperates poverty and stress, which we know for sure means less healthy lifestyle, and more likelihood of dying young.
There is a middle ground to isolate the vulnerable, and use things like distancing etc to reopen the economy, and save more lives in the long run. As soon as the therapeutics are proven, it will be even more true. If we keep people locked up, then they are not getting the daily immunities we need to develop, and that makes people more vulnerable to contract some other disease that may harm them.
Sweden never fully locked down. They remained open with social distancing limits, and a requirement that old and vulnerable people stay home, and anyone feeling sick stays home on full sick pay. Otherwise there are some rules to not have crowded bars etc, but everyone is going to work and school because they feel it does more damage to close the economy. They chose a middle route. Their GDP will decline 10% but that compares to 30% or so for most others. They have similar unemployment and business subsidies as we do. However when this passes they will be able to recover much more quickly with much less economic damage. They were in what is equal to our stage one and two of reopening. Careful but open. Some damage, but limited. Good ability to recover quickly. Sweden is not the US, so what works in that culture, and tiny country, may not work as well here, but we can learn from them.
So now we have three trillion of more debt, with the Dems wanting to add even more hundreds of billions, and use the crisis to promote their left wing agenda. We could have locked down the potentially dangerously ill, and those with conditions that made them vulnerable, and let everyone else go on with life. Some more people would have gotten sick, but healthy people would not have died. Very much like flu. There would have been community immunity built up.
Unfortunately this was politically impossible. When the final analysis is done, we will see that the lockdown of everything was a mistake with long term bad outcomes, and the lockdown created more death and destruction of the economy and lives, than the virus ever would have. We now have doctors and nurses being laid off across the country because there is nothing for them to do with elective surgery and procedures shut down.
Rural and small hospitals are going broke for that reason. So now we had to give tens of billions to save those hospitals from a problem that need not have been created.
And all the press can do is attack Trump no matter what he says or does, claiming he did not act fast enough, but they defend WHO, and make no comment about DeBozo and Cuomo for delaying shut down of NYC until mid- March. I am now convinced that while the virus was very bad in NY, and needed to be dealt with thru stay home orders, Cuomo saw an opportunity and grabbed it. His policies have caused NY to have a $6 billion budget shortfall before the virus. His high taxes pushed many wealthy to move to Palm Beach and other places in FL to avoid state taxes. These are the guys he needs to pay the taxes, and he chased them away.
He was on TV every morning claiming he had no ventilators, not enough ICU beds, and showing models that eventually proved to be far off reality. It turned out the beds in Javits Center went mainly unused, and the hospital ship left for lack of use. Nobody did not get a ventilator. Now he is claiming NY got short changed, and needs to get Federal tax dollars to bail it out. He is using a crisis to try to be the poster boy for why the states need a federal bailout and it is BS.
NY needs budget reform, not a bailout. I am a NY taxpayer, and so this is not to my benefit. CBS showed a clip claiming ambulances were lined up waiting to drop off patients at a NY hospital. Truth was the ambulances were lined up waiting for something to do. CBS also showed a clip of what they claimed was Jacksonville beach when it opened, claiming it was mobbed and nobody was complying with separation orders. The clip was actually from LA years ago, not Jacksonville. The press is misleading as usual.
The head of Cleveland Clinic, one of the world’s leading hospitals, has said we are dealing with Covid with 14th century methodology. We need to learn to live with it. Only 2% of US hospital capacity is used for Covid, but now many are afraid to go to hospital to deal with other serious illness, and so are dying. We see this as true by many hospitals laying off docs and nurses outside of NYC area, and small hospitals going broke.
The problem is, NY is driving the narrative, but it is totally different than almost anywhere else in the US. Nassau County next to NYC has more dead than all of CA. Westchester has more dead per 100,000 than TX by far, 989 vs 611. NYC has 16 times the death rate per 100,000 than the rest of the country. If you eliminate NY, then the US is barely worse off than Germany, which is held up as a good example of doing it right, and it has partially reopened. Chicago looks worse than it is due to an outbreak in Cook County jail, and SD due to the Smithfield pork plant.
It is clear they have been giving us data which is badly skewed by the NY area, and by a couple of individual situations. The new antibody test of 3000 random New Yorkers shows the real death rate in NY is .6% and most of them are old and otherwise sick vs the WHO claim of a rate of 3.4% in March.
WHO has no credibility left at all. Yet the press keeps quoting them. They should deduct these individual situations like NY and Cook County jail, and Smithfield, and then tell us the data for the rest of the country, and get it reopened.
Brian Kemp will prove things one way or the other. If his reopening results in no new cases emanating directly from his reopened businesses, then by May 4, the whole country will be under huge pressure to reopen. The beauty salon owner who opened had it right. They control the number of customers in the shop at any one moment, everyone wears a mask, and they sanitize regularly. He said, if I can go to the supermarket, why can’t customers come in to my salon and get a haircut. GA is the real test, and we will see in two weeks. Kemp may prove to be the real hero in this whole thing. We will know by early May.
Here is another unforeseen impact nobody is thinking about. The Port of NY NJ is not collecting tolls nor fees from port activity. Result they are very short of funds now. Result, critical infrastructure projects have been put on hold for lack of cash. Same for the NY transit authority, and other similar authorities and transit lines across the country. That is a major hit to infrastructure, which is a major hit to good jobs going forward, and inefficiencies in transit not being corrected, which is a societal and business cost.
Start to think about all the other things that are not collecting fees, etc, or where people have been told it is OK to not pay for now. We are creating a potential economic mess longer term, and Pelosi and Schumer want to hold up funding small business to push their political agenda, and get mail in ballots approved so they can ballot harvest and change election results like they did in CA in 2018.
Now the Dems want the rest of us to bail out the bankrupt pension plans of IL, NY, NJ, Ct and other union controlled states where the legislatures gave away huge pensions and healthcare coverage in exchange for campaign contributions, and then gave the unions more pension coverage in exchange for more campaign contributions.
A vicious circle of mass corruption for which nobody will go to jail. The pension plans then used the phony assumption of an 8% compound return to make believe they were able to cover liabilities. Few pension plans anywhere even achieve 7%, and none of the above ever came close. IL was around 5.5%. Now you are supposed to bail them out.
Mitch is correct—NO WAY. These states are insolvent by any measure you use, and we cannot just write federal checks to continue the corruption. That is how it has been for decades. It has to stop.
There is no way the Dems in an election year will agree to stop the situation. Result will be a major battle in Congress where McConnell will be painted as a terrible guy by the press. He is a hero for having the balls to say-No more. You already heard Cuomo the other day claiming the cops and firemen will lose their jobs. He never mentions all the other wasteful spending in NY and elsewhere. He never mentions pension reform. You will now be barraged in the press with claims that cops and firemen and health workers will be laid off, but never any talk of pensions, or budget reforms..
DeBozo was on TV Sunday also going right to if NYC does not get $7.5 billion right way they will lay off cops and firemen. Plus he says publicly and clearly wants to use this to expand his left wing agenda. Why should anyone in Tennessee pay for NYC bad policies, incompetence, corruption, and waste?
The press and others cite Singapore having a resurgence of the virus. Reality. It is among immigrant workers tightly packed into barracks like living, and not healthy people. Ignore the Singapore comparison. It has nothing to do with the reality in the US.
There is a lot of negative press about Hydroxy. They site the VA study which was not a trial, and was simply a file review of cases, and not peer reviewed, nor scientifically in line with proper methodology to draw any conclusions. The FDA warning was simply to say don’t try this at home it could kill you, and only use it with a doc in a clinical setting. That is not the same as it does not work in the right patients, in the right setting as many try to claim. We don’t yet know the results of the various real clinical trials being done. The press is just trying to make it look bad with no facts.
One of the big risks about to hit is the flood of plaintiff lawyer claims against hospitals and docs. It is very likely why major companies are reluctant to reopen. They know the lawsuits will follow, and some juries will levy giant judgements. The plaintiff lawyers, who I consider to be ambulance chasers who care not a twit about the damage they create, are a major risk going forward, and the government needs to put forth a blanket freedom from liability coverage without going to Congress since Pelosi and Schumer are well compensated with contributions from the lawyers, and will never vote against them. That was one reason for the extra cash to hospitals so they had cash to pay off the lawyers. The swamp is so corrupt it is sickening.
I have never believed China created this intentionally as a bio weapon. However, I now have another theory. In December they realized what this disease could become, and they sealed off the rest of China from Wuhan. They protected China and its leaders in Beijing. Then they let thousands of Chinese in Wuhan to fly off to the rest of the world to infect everyone else and cause economic carnage, while they bought up all of the PPE from across the world. I believe it is possible that once China realized they could cause so much economic damage to the US and the EU, they let sick people in Wuhan travel and spread the disease while they moved to protect themselves, while they vacuumed up almost all the PPE to cause even more damage to us and others.
Maybe it became bio war after they realized what was happening. It was their once in a lifetime opportunity to cripple us, and the rest of the world, and cause Trump to lose to Biden, who they prefer, leaving them in command of the world. WHO played right into this by claiming in mid- January this was not transmissible by humans, Then WHO attacked Trump for closing the border. (The 40,000 Pelosi talks about coming in from China were almost all US citizens who were trapped in China at that moment.)
Then it was mid-March before they and WHO declared a pandemic. By then China had almost all the PPE. A few million payoff to the head of WHO was a cheap price to pay. This may just be a bad conspiracy theory, but it seems possible to me.
Truth about Stacy Abrams. She refused to believe she lost her run for governor. Likely that ruined her plan to run for president. She has not paid her taxes in two years. She owes around $99,000 in student debt. She has around $75,000 in credit card debt. She created make believe organizations which then paid her $500,000 last year out of the contributions. She also collects as a former state legislator. She writes books and has an income from them. You can assume her expenses to events is paid by others. And the press thinks she would make a great VP. She says she will be president one day.
Heaven help us.