The market rally really is broadening out. If you need more proof, just check out dividend-paying stocks. Exxon Mobil, Walmart, Ford, Coca-Cola, and a host of others are all beating the darlings of tech.
The iShares Select Dividend exchange-traded fund, for example, climbed 6.6% in January. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF—all heavy weighted in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple—gained 1.4%, 1%, and 0.3%, respectively.
Other top dividend funds, such as the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF, State Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, and WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund, are market leaders, too.
“January saw everything but large-cap growth do well when it comes to style ETFs,” wrote analysts at Bespoke Investment Group on Monday. “Some of the best performers year-to-date have been dividend and value ETFs, even in the small-cap space.”
The Bespoke team pointed out that defensive sectors, which tend to hold up in a slower-growing economy, have benefited from the tech selloff of late. The upshot is that dividend ETFs and dividend stocks look “extended’ in the near future, but are “still in a solid long-term uptrend.”
Dividend stocks stand to keep going up if interest rates don’t move considerably higher. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury, now about 4.25%, offers decent income for conservative-oriented investors. But those who want a little more risk—the chance to benefit from earnings growth as well as steady income—should think about blue-chip dividend payers, too.
Valuations are compelling as well. The iShares Select Dividend ETF trades for 13 times earnings estimates for this year, compared with a price-to-earnings multiple of 22 for the S&P 500.
“It is reassuring to see the broadening out of the market,” Rusty Vanneman, chief investment officer with FNBO Wealth, told Barron’s.
Vannemann said artificial intelligence—and tech more broadly—will still be “a dominant theme for the market” this year, but investors should add value stocks, particularly small-caps, to their portfolios.
“When it comes to equities, you need to diversify,” he said.
Sofi’s investment strategy chief, Liz Thomas, agrees. She told Barron’s that the broadening will keep rolling this year: “Value can beat growth for the first time in a while.”
Thomas favors several sectors known for solid dividends, such as materials, healthcare and consumer staples.
Strength in dividend names, of course, doesn’t mean the tech is dead. But investors need to be sure their portfolios include a wider array of stocks, particularly those that can provide income and stability in what will probably remain a volatile market.
And dividend growers should work their way into portfolios, too. They have been really outperforming the broader market, according to Matt Orton, head of advisory solutions and market strategy for Raymond James Investment Management.
ConEd, Sunoco and Williams Companies, for example, have all announced dividend increases this year. Their stocks are up 5.7%, 9.1% and 10.6% respectively.
And even some lower-yielding tech companies are increasing their dividends. Chip equipment companies Lam Research and Applied Materials and Google owner Alphabet are top holdings in the First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF, for example. Those stocks, which are also getting a boost from the AI trade, have all soared this year. Their dividend yields are below 1%, but they are growing.
Those numbers are important to note. High dividend yields aren’t the be-all andend all for income investors. You also want to make sure you’re buying stocks that have strong enough balance sheets to keep boosting those payouts.
Ask any young person who has been through the education system during the past 12 years of Obama/Biden’s reign and what they learned? And, then, ask any CEO of any company who tries to hire these young people – if they are employable?
These young people could form a class action suit because they didn’t get the education they paid for starting with the first grade, etc. What wasted years the Democrats gave to our children.
Anyone who votes for a Democrat in this day and time is missing the boat to SAVE OUR COUNTRY. The people who are Democrats need to break away from these SOCIALISTS.
In response, the president announced he will be seeking $1billion in damages from the university as his feud with the educational institution rages on. “Strongly Antisemitic Harvard University has been feeding a lot of “nonsense” to The Failing New York Times,” Trump wrote in a more than 250-word post. It comes as Melania Trump will never leave Donald for this chilling reason, says ex-aide.
Trump, who has accused Harvard of failing to tackle antisemitism during pro-Palestinian protests, claimed the university has been “behaving very badly,” and committed “heinous illegalities.” He did not clarify how he believed Harvard had broken the law.
Trump claimed the NYT’s story was “completely wrong” in a second irate post. “I hereby demand that the morons that run (into the ground!) the Times’ change their story, immediately,” he wrote.
The president also defended his poll numbers during the late-night rant. He continued: “Also, just like their incorrectly called (by the Times!) Election results, where they got it ALL WRONG, my Poll Numbers are Great! The New York Times coverage of me is so purposely wrong. We will soon see how I do in my lawsuit against these fraudsters! FAKE NEWS!”
“The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER,” Trump claimed in another post.
However, according to the latest YouGov/The Economist poll, Trump’s approval rating is now down -18%, the lowest in both his first and second term.
The president’s approval has dropped 0.1 points since last week, with just 38% of Americans currently approving of his job performance, while 56% disapprove and 5% are not sure.
At the beginning of his second term, Trump’s net approval rating was two. A week into his return to the White House, 37% of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction while 50% thought it was on the wrong track. Those numbers are now 31% and 60% respectively.
Trump later shared a link to a McLaughlin poll he appeared to be referencing in his earlier posts. Jim McLaughlin is a GOP strategist and pollster who has worked for Trump’s three most recent presidential campaigns.
McLaughlin’s most recent poll found that Trump’s job approval is unchanged from last month, with 50% approving and 47% disapproving. Other polls paint a similar picture to the YouGov data.
The latest IPSOS poll found that 59% of Americans disapprove of how the president is currently doing his job, while 38% approve. Meanwhile, latest Fox News poll found that 56% disapprove and 44% approve.
The following is for all of the naysayers. Is the doctor stating – that our President is “hitting on all cylinders?”
Isn’t AI smart enough to tell the “smarties” how to fix the problem of the stocks being over-valued?
****
Is a 3rd historic stock market crash imminent under President Donald Trump? Here’s what the data says.
Story by Sean Williams
Feb 01
Key takeaways
Historic Gains & Crashes: During Trump’s terms, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw massive gains (up to 142%), but also experienced two historic crashes, including a 34% COVID-19 drop and a 10.5% tariff-driven decline.
Valuation & Risks: The Shiller P/E Ratio is above 41, making the market one of the priciest in history. High valuations and Trump’s tariff policies could challenge equities, though a crash is not imminent.
Investor Perspective: Short-term volatility is normal and often short-lived. Long-term data shows the S&P 500 has risen in every 20-year period over the past century, highlighting the importance of optimism and long-term strategy.
Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have soared during Trump’s presidency, he’s also overseen two historic (and short-lived) stock market crashes.
Stock valuations and President Trump’s tariff and trade policy may make things challenging for equities.
However, perspective can change everything for investors.
For the better part of President Donald Trump’s first term in the White House, the stock market was unstoppable. By the time he left office in January 2021, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) had soared by 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. It marked one of the highest annualized returns overseen by any president, dating back to the late 1800s.
Trump’s second, non-consecutive stint as president has begun in a similar fashion — with big stock gains. Between Inauguration Day (Jan. 20, 2025) and the time of this writing (Jan. 28, 2026), the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have rallied by 13%, 16%, and 22%, respectively.
But these outsize gains haven’t been without their fair share of stock market drama. In February-March 2020, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, a 33-calendar-day crash wiped out 34% of the S&P 500’s value.
More recently, a two-day stretch (from the closing bell on April 2 to the end of trading on April 4) that followed the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff and trade policy resulted in Wall Street’s benchmark index losing 10.5% of its value. This marked its fifth-steepest two-day decline in history, dating back to 1950.
With two historic stock market crashes during Trump’s tenure, it’s time to let historical data weigh in on the likelihood of a third crash being imminent.
Here’s what history has to say about another stock market crash under Trump
Before proceeding, take note that while history does tend to rhyme on Wall Street, it can’t guarantee that something will happen in the future. Nevertheless, past correlations can often predict what’s to come.
One of the historical markers that doesn’t bode particularly well for Wall Street is its expensive valuation, as measured by the S&P 500’s Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio.
When back-tested to January 1871, this valuation tool, which is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing decade, has averaged 17.33. As of the closing bell on Jan. 28, the CAPE Ratio clocked in above 41. This is the second-priciest stock market in history, according to this indicator, and is within striking distance of the highest-ever multiple of 44.19, set mere months before the dot-com bubble burst.
Although it’s impossible to predict how long valuations will remain extended, the Shiller P/E has an exceptional track record of foreshadowing significant declines. The CAPE Ratio has only exceeded 30 on six occasions in 155 years, with the previous five instances followed by drops in the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq ranging from 20% to 89%.
Another piece of history that threatens to upend the bull market President Trump is overseeing is his aforementioned tariff and trade policy.
In December 2024, four New York Federal Reserve economists, writing for Liberty Street Economics, published a report (“Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?”) that examined the performance of stocks following the implementation of Trump’s China tariffs in 2018-2019. The economists found that companies directly affected by these tariffs endured, on average, declines in labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits from 2019 to 2021. In other words, the negative impact from tariffs lasted far beyond Trump’s initial announcement.
But while the Shiller P/E and Liberty Street Economics report both point to notable downside for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, neither suggests a stock market crash is imminent. Although things could certainly be far more challenging for stocks during Trump’s second term in the White House, the data doesn’t indicate an elevator-down move is forthcoming.
Perspective and optimism are investors’ top allies
To be objective, most investors aren’t thrilled when they see a portfolio of red arrows. However, these moments of emotion-driven pessimism have the potential to turn into generational buying opportunities for optimistic, long-term-minded investors.
The only guarantee investors have when examining short investing time frames is unpredictability. Stock market corrections, bear markets, and even feared stock market crashes are normal, inevitable, and arguably healthy events that are part of the investing cycle. The catch is that these events are historically short-lived.
For example, the COVID-19 crash wiped out just over a third of the S&P 500’s value in less than five weeks. But just six months after hitting its pre-COVID-19 crash peak, the benchmark index had reached a new high. The S&P 500 has gone on to more than double since August 2020.
It’s a similar story following Donald Trump’s tariff-driven crash in early April 2025. Despite nosediving over a four-day trading period, Wall Street’s highly followed stock index had recouped everything that was lost one month later. Furthermore, the three-month gains for the S&P 500 following this short-lived crash are some of the strongest in the index’s history.
If investors maintain perspective and take a step back when the stock market becomes volatile or unpredictable, their view of equities is likely to change. Whereas short-term directional moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are unpredictable, multidecade directional predictions for these indexes have been much more certain.
Every year, analysts at Crestmont Research publish a data set that calculates the rolling 20-year total returns, including dividends, of the S&P 500. These calculations date back to the start of the 20th century.
In total, Crestmont examined 107 rolling 20-year periods (1900-1919, 1901-1920, and so on, to 2006-2025) and found that all 107 generated a positive annualized total return. No matter what obstacles were thrown the stock market’s way, the S&P 500 has a 100% success rate of heading higher over every 20-year period, dating back more than a century.
If a stock market correction, bear market, or elevator-down move does take shape under President Trump, maintaining perspective, being optimistic, and positioning your investment portfolio for the future would be the wise move.
Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?
Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $450,256!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,171,666!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 942% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 196% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The new documentary Melania is breaking expectations: strong audience turnout, exceptional viewer scores, and surprising box office strength in conservative markets, all while mainstream critics largely dismiss it. This piece summarizes reactions from a press screening, highlights the film’s opening numbers and audience feedback, and notes the disconnect between critics and ordinary moviegoers. It also lays out how this reception undercuts the predictable media narrative and points to cultural momentum that few anticipated. The results so far underline a clear appetite for this kind of film and a lesson about where influence really comes from.
A colleague attended a Los Angeles-area screening and came away impressed by the film’s intimate access and the moments that reveal private family dynamics. He described it as a “fascinating look behind the scenes in the corridors of power — something that for a political junkie like me was ambrosia.” That kind of access is rare and it gives viewers material most outlets would have ignored or spun differently.
One standout exchange captured the light touch that humanizes the people on screen and disarms critics. “It was her movie, and she shone, but some of my favorite moments featured Donald and their son, Barron. At one point, when someone is detailing a long list of things the president has to do during that day, he quipped (paraphrasing, because there was no recording allowed), “And then I Make America Great Again?”” That line landed with the audience and offered a glimpse of the family chemistry the film emphasizes.
The screening also underscored a powerful visual contrast that resonated with attendees: the arrival of the Trumps juxtaposed with the departing president. The reviewer wrote that he was “struck by how powerful the moment was of them coming in and Joe Biden leaving, seemingly barely able to walk, and thankfully gone, so he could no longer harm America.” That reaction reflects not just cinematic technique but a political reading the crowd clearly embraced.
Audience response has translated into real box office momentum, particularly in Sun Belt and Midwestern cities rather than the usual coastal strongholds. Reports indicate the movie is expected to pull in $8.1 million on opening, putting it on track to be the best documentary debut in a decade. Markets like Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Houston and several Florida cities are driving ticket sales, with some theaters showing surprisingly high per-location grosses.
Turnout skews heavily toward older women and looks a lot like the profile of faith-based hits, which are known for reliable, committed audiences. The exit polling data shows a 72% female turnout and 72% over age 55, a demographic that still shows up for movies that resonate with their values. These are the voters and consumers who often set trends beyond what coastal critics expect.
More striking is how viewers are rating the film compared to critics. The exit scores were “quite royal with an A CinemaScore, 5 stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak, and get this — an 89% definite recommend; unheard for any movie. If a movie is in the 70 percentile range, that’s outstanding. [….]” Audience scores on popular aggregators are astronomically higher than the critical consensus. The viewer rating on Rotten Tomatoes sits near 99%, while critics have graded the movie at 6% — a gulf that speaks to deep cultural and media fragmentation.
[B]ut the exit scores are quite royal with an A CinemaScore, 5 stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak, and get this — an 89% definite recommend; unheard for any movie. If a movie is in the 70 percentile range, that’s outstanding. [….]
The turnout here is almost like that of a faith-based movie: 72% women, with 72% over 55. Audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is 99% while critics have based the movie at 6%. Melania is playing best in the South (12% over the norm) and South Central with the Cinemark Palace 21 in Boca Raton, FL the pic’s current highest grossing location with over $10K. Pic’s top grossing markets are Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, West Palm Beach, Fort Myers, Miami, Minnesota, Nashville, Jackson, MI; St. Louis, Las Vegas, Cleveland — the list goes on…no NYC or LA in this bunch.
That gap between audiences and critics isn’t accidental; it’s rooted in different expectations and agendas. Critics often evaluate on ideology and trend-setting criteria, while everyday moviegoers respond to storytelling, access, and feeling represented. When the public rejects the chorus of negativity, that rejection can become its own kind of story.
There’s also the small but meaningful factor of perceived pushback from establishment outlets and institutions. Attempts to minimize exposure or dismiss the film may have inadvertently driven curiosity and attendance. People who distrust legacy reviewers often take recommendations from community and peer networks instead, which seems to be playing out here.
The left will have to contend with a film that is performing well where it counts: with voters and ticket buyers. As the numbers and recommendations keep rolling in, the larger lesson is clear — cultural influence still flows from the ground up, and dismissal from the coasts might not slow a movie that connects with its audience.
****
Our country thanks you for your service and your personal story paints a picture that will be forever etched in history.
kommonsentsjane 