7/9/2024
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Story by Nahal Toosi
• 1d • 6 min read
As the leaders of NATO countries arrive in Washington this week, one may be smirking more than usual.
Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán, an enfant terrible of the alliance. has bucked long-standing diplomatic tradition by taking sides in the U.S. presidential race. He’s openly backing Republican Donald Trump and dramatically expanding his ties to the U.S. right.
American conservatives, meanwhile, are flocking to Hungary for conferences. Some are saying Orbán’s increasingly dictatorial rule — he calls it “illiberal democracy” — should be a model for America.
Given incumbent President Joe Biden’s recent debate debacle, Orbán is likely pleased with his bet. But is it really smart for him, or any foreign leader, to take the risk of favoring one political party when dealing with the United States?
Sure. Because — win or lose — the party you pick will likely try to protect you.
The world and world leaders know the president.
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The prevailing wisdom in most capitals, including Washington, has long been that it’s best to stay neutral in other nations’ political contests. After all, in the end, you need to get along with whoever wins.
But as America’s political polarization deepens, more foreign leaders may decide the best way to protect their country’s interests, or their own, is to cozy up to a single U.S. party.
If a foreign leader sides with the U.S. party that wins the White House, the benefits are obvious. Even if that party loses, its partisan animus will likely drive it to block many administrative or legislative actions from the other side, including ones targeting their friends abroad.
Some leaders may decide to curry favor with one party only on some divisive issues. But in a more partisan environment — where even foreign policy, once an area of broad consensus, is no longer immune from acrimony — there will be more areas where Democrats and Republicans will refuse to compromise.
Leaders such as Orbán “are absolutely convinced that there is one party that is far more likely to be protective and supportive of them in power than another party,” Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO who now leads the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, told me.
Orbán isn’t alone in picking sides.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has fostered and feasted on American political divisions for years, especially over how to deal with Iran, throwing his lot in with Republicans. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is accused of interfering in U.S. elections to benefit the Republicans, and he’s surely pleased with far-right GOP efforts to scuttle aid to Ukraine. Even German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a relatively cautious figure, came across as unusually pro-Biden in a mid-June interview, drawing rebukes from Trump backers.
Orbán is extra intriguing in his own way: Although Hungary is a country of only 10 million, its membership in NATO and the European Union gives Orbán added heft in Washington’s eyes. Orbán also is exceptionally blatant about his preferences, even compared to Netanyahu or Putin; he openly yearns for a second Trump presidency.
President Donald Trump meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the Oval Office of the White House on May 13, 2019, in Washington.© Evan Vucci/AP
Trump and Orbán have much in common. They have anti-immigration platforms, appeal to white Christian nationalists and desire to cultivate ties to Putin. (Orbán is set to visit Washington justafter a controversial trip to Russia, which followed a stop in Ukraine). Trump has a well-documented disdain for NATO, and if he wants to fundamentally reshape it, Orbán may play along.
Trump acolytes, including those at think tanks drafting papers for a second term, see Orbán’s reshaping of Hungary’s judiciary, civil service and elections system to prolong his rule as a road map to follow in a second Trump term.
Like Trump, the Hungarian strongman — who has served as prime minister since 2010 — has shown little sympathy for Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion, throwing up roadblocks to NATO support for Kyiv. And Orbán has described Trump as the man who can end that war.
“The only serious chance for peace is if he’s able to come back and to make peace,” Orbán has said.
I reached out to Orbán’s office, his ambassador to the United States and his foreign minister for further comment, but none of them responded.
The Hungarian visited Trump and the conservative Heritage Foundation, but not the White House, on a trip to the United States in March. His country is serving as the president of the Council of the European Union, a rotating position, and the Trump-echoing theme he’s pushing for the six-month term is “Make Europe Great Again.”
That said, Orbán’s party, Fidesz, underperformed in recent EU parliamentary elections. That’s partly because of the rise of a new opposition leader, Péter Magyar, who emerged as a political force just months ago after breaking with Orbán’s party.
The Biden administration has sought to keep Orbán in check with a mix of tough rhetoric, unsent invitations, a few sanctions and other small slaps. Overall, it’s a more aggressive approach than the Obama administration’s and a near-180-degree turn from the attitude of the first Trump administration.
Results are mixed; Orbán has backed down at times. And some U.S. officials have long believed that he’s more likely to respond to European pressure — of which there is more these days — than U.S. pressure, though the latter helps nudge the former along.
But Orbán’s growing ties to the American right have not escaped the notice of Biden administration officials.
Biden has blasted the Trump-Orbán bromance, while also talking about how many international leaders have told him that he can’t let Trump win.
At the same time, one U.S. official familiar with European policy told me that some American diplomats dealing with Budapest wonder whether moving too harshly against Orbán could lead his U.S. right-wing allies to cast it as a de facto attack by Biden against Trump.
But the official stressed they were not aware of a case where the Trump-Orbán link was a deciding factor in U.S. decision-making on Hungary, and other U.S. officials familiar with the country insisted such considerations did not apply. All were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.
Some Republicans have criticized Hungary, including for its slowness in agreeing to allow Sweden to join NATO. But as Trump’s hold over the GOP grows, such critiques will likely fade. Orbán appears to understand that phenomenon and the importance of having a direct relationship with Trump, who tends to take things personally and can hold a grudge.
For any world leader considering taking the partisan pill when dealing with Washington, it’s worth asking whether the benefits are short-term or long-term, and what the damage is either way.
Take Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister’s flirtations with the GOP, especially his efforts to humiliate Barack Obama, chipped away at his standing with Democrats.
In the short term, Netanyahu scored a win through partisan maneuvering by helping kill the Iran nuclear deal. But now, as he faces severe criticism over his handling of the war in Gaza, Democrats are less likely to support him, even if they support Israel overall.
Orbán is no stranger to political about-faces. As a younger man, he called for the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary and helped the country transition to democracy. And given Hungary’s role in NATO, an Orbán who shifts back toward those democratic roots in the future may once again be welcomed back into the Western fold with few questions asked.
For now, he’s irritating the people running the White House.
Channeling much of that displeasure is the Biden administration’s choice for ambassador in Budapest: David Pressman, an outspoken gay man and expert in human rights.
Pressman used a recent speech to question the wisdom of Orbán’s constant references to “who he would vote for if he were an American, which he is not.”
The envoy warned that it is a “dangerous proposition” for Orbán to inject partisanship into U.S.-Hungary ties, because it, along with other Orbán moves, “risks changing” the relationship for the worse.
“The U.S.-Hungary relationship is based on the shared aspirations of our people — Hungarians and Americans — to live freely under democracy, rule of law, and security,” Pressman said. “The Hungarian government would do well not to cheapen that with politics.”
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