03/07/2026
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Story by Mike Crisolago
Mar 07 • 5 min read • Updated 4h ago
Key takeaways
- Economic Performance: Despite policy uncertainty and tariffs, the economy showed solid growth, low unemployment (~4.4%), rising GDP ($31.4 trillion), and strong stock market performance.
- Risks & Challenges: Tariffs, inflation, and slow job growth create fragile conditions, with potential impacts on consumer costs, investment, and hiring.
- Policy Impact: Trump’s tariff policies remain central to his economic strategy, but their effectiveness is uncertain, with mixed results in manufacturing and household costs.
Expert says economic ‘uncertainty’ will cost US© NurPhoto/Getty Images
President Donald Trump recently touted his tariff policy as creating “an American economic miracle” that’s paving the way toward “the greatest economy in the history of the world.” But, as with any declaration of miracles, skeptics abound.
In this case, they come in the form of Americans responding to a Harvard/Harris Poll survey (2), released Feb. 2, that found 53% of respondents feel the U.S. economy is on the wrong track.
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When asked about the split sentiment among Americans on the economy, economist Erika McEntarfer, who previously served as the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), told Moneywise that “really, the story is the economy’s been remarkably resilient over the last year, despite lots of additional policy uncertainty and tariff disputes. A lot of the economic data has held up fairly well.”
McEntarfer added, though, that “the underlying economic environment remains fraught with uncertainty” related to everything from trade policy and Federal Reserve independence to the cost of living and the labor market.
“And that’s fueling a fair amount of anxiety among businesses and individuals in the economy,” she said. “So they may not be feeling confident despite fairly good economic data.”
The assessment of Trump’s economy comes less than a year after the president fired McEntarfer as BLS commissioner, baselessly accusing her of releasing a ”rigged” jobs report meant to make him and GOP lawmakers look bad (3).
Nevertheless, one year into Trump’s second term, McEntarfer offered a balanced take on the president’s handling of the economy — a key issue that propelled him back to the Oval Office in the last election.
Measuring the successes of Trump’s economy
While calling the economy a “miracle” is a trademark Trump overstatement, the president did notch some big economic wins in 2025.
“Economic growth came in very solidly over the last year. The stock market is doing fairly well after a dip in April around Liberation Day,” McEntarfer explained.
“And the labor market, while cooling, [shows] unemployment remains low and there are real earnings gains. So if you’re looking for positive news in the data, there’s a fair amount there.”
Inflation had its ups and downs but didn’t reach the dire levels many anticipated, and consumer spending remained strong — albeit mostly among high-income households making more than $125,000 a year (4).
Meanwhile, GDP continued to climb, hitting $31.4 trillion in Q4 last year, up 1.5% over Q3 after jumping 4.4% from Q2 (5). And, according to FactCheck.org, since Trump’s return to the White House, the stock market has “continued to set new records.”
Chief economist for RSM US Joseph Brusuelas called the economy a $30 trillion “dynamic and resilient beast” near the end of 2025, but warned that “it’s going to face a test here at the turn of the year” due to “adverse policy shocks emanating from Washington,” along with his expectation that the unemployment rate could rise (6).
Waiting for the miracle
That unemployment rate, in fact, hit 4.5% in November — the highest since October 2021 — before dipping slightly down to 4.4% where it has held steady since December (7). The U.S. also only added 584,000 in 2025 — a drop from the two million added in 2024 and the lowest figure since 2020.
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Jason Draho of UBS Global Wealth Management told Business Insider (8) that issues like policy uncertainty, recession fears and tariffs “made companies a little more reluctant to invest, to hire, if you’re not sure how much of an overall economic drag that tariffs would have.”
And McEntarfer, too, warned that the labor market “stands out” in terms of risk, noting that stagnant hiring and slow job growth create “fragile conditions for any future negative shocks.”
As well, the costs of everything from food to energy jumped in 2025, with the BLS reporting an all items index average increase of 2.7% (9).
A 20% increase in Affordable Care Act premiums (10) added to the economic crunch, while the Trump administration announced potential strategies (11) to address what Realtor.com analyst Hannah Jones called the “persistent affordability challenges and a shortage of reasonably priced homes” (12).
Tariffs, however, remain Trump’s signature policy and the one he championed as the driver of his “economic miracle.” But Tax Foundation data (13) shows that they added an average tax increase of $1,000 per household last year, with a $1,300 blow possible this year.
McEntarfer noted that many analysts expect to see further pass-through of tariff costs to consumers, and pointed to a Goldman Sachs projection (14) that tariffs could soon raise inflation by 1%.
She added that the economy has held up under the tariffs, but that the ways businesses and policymakers navigate the uncertainty that the tariff policy breeds will “be critical going forward.”
The American manufacturing sector, for example, lost 72,000 jobs since last April (15) — the same month Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs which were, in part, specifically meant to help boost the sector.
“The theory of the tariff policy appears to be that [it] will eventually turn itself around,” McEntarfer said, noting the lack of manufacturing boom and job losses. “But it is difficult to see the path by which that takes place.”
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