01/13/2026
By Joel Litman,
| Not rendering correctly? View this e-mail as a web page here. \Ignore the Sentiment ‘Noise’By Joel Litman, chief investment officer, Altimetry  2025 was a solid year for the U.S. economy…The S&P 500 Index finished up roughly 16% after a rocky start.Gross domestic product growth remained positive through the first three quarters, defying widespread recession fears.Likewise, consumer spending reached new highs – $21.2 billion as of September 2025.These types of outcomes normally fill investors with confidence.Instead, the tone in early 2026 is largely negative… Folks are worried that the good track record won’t last much longer.While 2025 ended on a strong note, the path felt wobbly. The government shutdown lasted a record 43 days. And unemployment has started rising over the past few months.So it’s normal to feel cautious about the economy. But the recent shift in sentiment may be healthier than it looks.Gallup’s annual survey of Americans’ expectations captures the change in mood…Compared with 2025, optimism for 2026 fell sharply across most of the 13 categories Gallup tracks, including employment, taxes, and economic prosperity.Take a look…Employment expectations saw the steepest decline… The share of Americans expecting full or increasing employment dropped from 54% to 36%.Expectations also fell for economic prosperity – from 44% to 30%.Recommended Links:TODAY: Critical Update to 2026 Crash PredictionIn a viral broadcast seen by at least 2 million people, investing icon Marc Chaikin shared a 2026 crash prediction that was based on 100 years of stock market data. And now that 2026 is here, he’s stepping forward from his home to explain what to expect… to share his battle plan… and the top stocks to BUY and SELL immediately. Before 10 a.m. Eastern time today, click here to learn more (and get two free stock recommendations).The $20 Move Giving You Exposure to 2 Ounces of Pure Gold (Worth Around $9,000 Today)An ex-Goldman Sachs vice president reveals a secret of the rich and connected that lets you tap into the upside of a huge amount of real, physical gold for just about $20 at a time. He says the future upside could be 1,000%. Even a relatively small amount of money could go a long way when every $20 or so leverages the upside in 2 ounces of pure gold, as he’ll explain. See this $20 “gold hack” right here.All of this makes sense. The labor market has softened after a long period of strength. Along with rising unemployment rates (4.6% in November 2025), we’re seeing slower job growth and fewer job openings.Americans also expect taxes to rise and challenges in political cooperation to persist.Even stock market expectations have fallen. While most investors think equities will rise by year-end, the positive prediction for a rising market dropped from 66% to 55%.Many investors are skeptical of the AI rally that powered much of the market last year…The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 make up more than 35% of the index. And many of those stocks are big AI-related companies, like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL).The market hasn’t been this concentrated since the 1960s… when blue-chip stocks, like Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald’s (MCD), led the pack.So it’s no surprise that folks are worried. But we haven’t seen any breakdown in AI growth yet. (We’ll cover this point in more detail in tomorrow’s Daily Authority.)From a market perspective, widespread skepticism can be stabilizing…It means there’s a mix of bullish and bearish approaches… And this tends to send the market higher.As we noted back in October, the wall of worry is sturdier than euphoria.In other words, major market downturns rarely emerge when investors are cautious. They tend to form when optimism becomes the consensus.A cautious market offers more flexibility. It’s less dependent on perfect outcomes, which means it can handle ups and downs.So far, the foundation of the U.S. economy remains intact… Consumers are still spending money, and the AI rally is forging ahead despite a potential bubble.In that sense, a little worry may be doing more good than harm.Joel LitmanJanuary 8, 2026Tell us what you think of this content |
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Thank you,
kommonsentsjane
Thank you, Mr. Litman.
kommonsentsjane
kommonsentsjane 