11/25/2025
The stock market just did something not seen in 18 years
The stock market has just broken a technical streak that had quietly been running in the background for months, and it is the kind of shift that only shows up a few times in a generation. After an unusually long run of strength, a key trend line finally gave way, ending a pattern that had not appeared in roughly 18 years and forcing investors to reassess how much risk they are really taking.
I see this as a classic inflection point: the data signal that powered confidence is gone, but the historical record suggests that the end of such streaks is rarely a simple on/off switch between boom and bust. Instead, it tends to mark a transition from easy gains to a more demanding market, where discipline and time horizon matter far more than headlines.
What actually just changed in the market
The core development is technical rather than headline driven. The broad U.S. market had been trading above a widely watched short-term trend line for an unusually long stretch, a sign of persistent buying pressure and limited pullbacks. That run has now snapped, which is why analysts are framing it as something not seen in about 18 years: the market finally dipped below a level that had acted as a kind of psychological floor for months.
Related video: Wall street veteran sees massive S&P 500 rally ahead (TheStreet)
In practical terms, this means the easy, one-way climb that many investors had grown used to has given way to a more two-sided tape. One detailed review of the move notes that the recent streak, which lasted 198 days, was the longest period in which the S&P 500 held above its 50-da moving average in nearly two decades, a stretch that underscored just how relentless the advance had become before the recent break.
How this streak compares with past market history
When a trend lasts this long, the natural question is whether it signals something fundamentally different about the current cycle or simply reflects the usual ebb and flow of investor sentiment. Looking back at earlier episodes, similarly extended runs above key moving averages have often occurred in the middle of strong bull markets rather than at their peak, with the eventual break marking a pause or correction rather than an outright collapse.
That historical pattern is important context for what happened around Nov 20, 2025, when the latest streak finally ended. Analysts who track these moving-average runs point out that, given the history of similar patterns, the conclusion of this one is not in itself a reason to be overly alarmed. Instead, it tends to mark a shift from a market that rewards almost any risk-taking to one that starts to differentiate more sharply between strong and weak companies.
The Dow’s violent swing and what it reveals about sentiment
While the moving-average break is a slow-burn technical story, the mood change showed up in a far more dramatic way in the blue-chip index. The Dow experienced an 1,100-point intraday swing, its biggest move of that size since tariff-driven turmoil back in April, as investors rushed to reprice everything from industrials to banks. That kind of whiplash is a clear sign that complacency has cracked, even if the longer term trend remains intact.
The same report notes that The Dow did not simply drift lower, it lurched, with buyers and sellers battling for control throughout the session. For me, that is a reminder that technical milestones rarely occur in a vacuum. When a long-running streak ends, it often coincides with a surge in volatility as algorithms, short-term traders, and longer term investors all react at once, amplifying moves that might otherwise have been modest.
What it means for everyday investors right now
For individual investors, the temptation is to treat the end of an 18-year-style milestone as a binary signal to get out or double down. I think that is the wrong way to read it. The more useful takeaway is that the market has shifted from a forgiving environment, where buying any dip worked, to one where timing and quality matter more. That does not automatically mean a bear market, but it does mean that the ride is likely to be bumpier from here.
One analysis of the recent break, published around Nov 20, 2025, argues that, given the history of these moving-average streaks, the end of the latest one is not a reason to be overly alarmed but rather a cue to reset expectations. In practical terms, that means revisiting asset allocation, checking whether stock exposure still matches time horizon, and making sure that concentrated bets in hot sectors are a deliberate choice rather than the accidental result of a long rally.
How I would navigate the next phase of this market
When a market does something it has not done in 18 years, I treat it as a prompt to slow down, not to panic. The combination of a broken technical streak and a violent Dow swing tells me that the easy phase of the cycle is over, but it does not tell me that the cycle itself is finished. In that kind of environment, I would rather tighten risk controls than make sweeping, all-or-nothing calls.
That starts with basics: using diversified index funds tied to the S&P 500 instead of chasing narrow themes, keeping a clear cash buffer for near term needs, and being realistic about volatility after a period when pullbacks were rare. The data around the 198-day streak and the 1,100-point Dow swing suggest that the market is transitioning rather than collapsing, which is exactly the kind of backdrop where patience, diversification, and a clear plan tend to outperform adrenaline-fueled reactions.
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