09/07/2025
Thank you, Louis.
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| September 5, 2025 |
| PODCAST Why a Bad Jobs Report Is Good News A lot of things are happening in the market today. Let’s talk first about the jobs report, which came in weaker than expected. This morning’s report showed only 22,000 jobs were added in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. That’s down from the 73,000 jobs created in July. Economists were looking for 75,000 jobs in August.There were also some revisions to previous months. For example, June’s numbers now show a loss of 14,000 jobs during the month, down from a previous downward revision in early August showing 14,000 jobs added in June. That’s the first monthly jobs loss in four years. In total, the revisions show a total of just about 30,000 jobs added over the past three months. However, in this environment, bad news is good. **** |
09/05/2025 PM
09/07
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Many economists say Friday’s disappointing jobs report is sending warning signals about the pace of hiring across the U.S. and the broader health of the economy.
Employers added only 22,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far short of Wall Street analyst forecasts of 80,000, while the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% — the highest level since October of 2021, when the economy was still reeling from the effects of the pandemic. In 2024, the economy added an average of 168,000 per month, labor data shows.
The job market is faltering partly because of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which are heightening economic uncertainty, boosting costs for importers and complicating business planning.. Some economists also think that rapid employer adoption of artificial intelligence is hurting demand for recent college graduates and other entry-level workers, although there is ongoing debate among researchers about how much AI is affecting job growth.
“Uncertainty makes it very, very difficult for people in companies to make decisions,” Laura Ullrich, director of economic research for North America at job-search firm Indeed and a former official at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told CBS MoneyWatch. “My former boss says that when you are driving through fog, you slow down — but if it gets thick enough, you pull over.”
The Trump administration defended its trade and other economic policies, expressing confidence they will eventually drive growth.
“President Trump’s trade deals have unlocked unprecedented market access for American exports to economies that in total are worth over $32 trillion with 1.2 billion people,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch. “As these unprecedented trade deals and the administration’s pro-growth domestic agenda of deregulation and historic working-class tax cuts take effect, American businesses and families alike have the certainty that the best is yet to come.”
In response to the jobs report, President Trump on Friday posted on social media that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should have moved sooner to cut interest rates. Lower borrowing costs can stimulate job growth by driving consumer spending and making it cheaper for businesses to expand their operations.
“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s ‘Too Late!’,” the president wrote.
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09/05/2025
Why is that – because with the NEW AI – companies are regrouping and lowering their employee head count.
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Hiring Stalled in August, With 22,000 New Jobs
Nonfarm payrolls, change from a month earlier
U.S. job growth continued to slow down in August, with just 22,000 new jobs—a sign that the labor market is deteriorating markedly.
Friday’s report adds to a summer of slow hiring and points to a stagnant job market that has lengthened job searches, shut young people out of employment and increased unemployment for Black workers
The Labor Department’s report also highlighted weakness from earlier in the year. The government revised its numbers from previous months and said that the economy lost a net 13,000 jobs in June. It was the first such decline since December 2020.
The losses in August were widespread, with the report showing drops in employment across sectors including manufacturing and finance. Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2%. That is still relatively low, suggesting that immigration restrictions are crimping the supply of available workers.
The report was also the first since President Trump a month ago fired the head of the agency that puts together the jobs data, after the July release painted a surprisingly gloomy picture of the economy.
Friday’s report all but seals the case that the hot jobs market of the postpandemic years is over. That makes a Federal Reserve rate cut this month practically guaranteed.Related video: First jobs report since Trump fired agency head shows hiring slowdown (Scripps News)
First jobs report since Trump fired agency head shows hiring slowdown
Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and other policies has led many companies to cut back on adding workers—a change that has been particularly challenging for people just entering the labor force, such as new graduates from high school and college.
Consumers, who are still feeling pinched from the recent run of inflation, are likewise worried that the new tariffs are starting to trickle through the economy.
“The labor market is continuing to slow to stall speed,” said Rebecca Patterson, an economist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The economic outlook is incredibly uncertain. Companies are being very cautious about adding personnel.”
The August jobs numbers were well below the gain of 75,000 jobs that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see. The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures, was 4.3%, up slightly from 4.2% in July.
Unemployment rate
The U.S. has added just 598,000 jobs so far in 2025. Outside of 2020, when the pandemic hit, that is the fewest for the first eight months of the year since 2009, when the economy was buckled by the financial crisis. The weakness has been particularly pronounced since May—the month after Trump announced his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—with an average gain of about 26,750 jobs a month
Private-sector employment grew by 38,000 jobs in August. That was driven by a gain of 46,800 jobs in healthcare and social assistance, a category that tends to add jobs regardless of how the overall economy is faring. Among the sectors registering sharp employment declines, manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs, construction lost 7,000 and professional and business services lost 17,000.
“If America wasn’t getting older and sicker, we would have a negative payroll print today. That’s not a good thing,” Patterson said.
Federal government employment declined by 15,000 jobs. However, those losses don’t reflect the magnitude of the massive job cuts the Trump administration has announced.Many federal workers have been on paid leave or are still getting severance pay, and therefore still counted as employed. JPMorgan Chase economists said that about 150,000 employees who took deferred resignations, and are still counted as having jobs, are set to roll off of government payrolls starting in October.
Traders in interest-rate derivatives now see a September rate cut as all but locked in. Still, stocks were in the red, a sign that investors don’t think a September cut is a cure-all for the economy.
Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a social-media post after the report came out. “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s ‘Too Late!’” he wrote.
Fed officials are increasingly concerned about weakness in the labor market. Powell had previously signaled the central bank was on track to cut rates if data suggested that the labor market was slowing.
Federal-government employment, change from a month earlier
Powell said last month that, while labor markets appear to be stable, it is “a curious kind of balance,” where both the supply of and demand for workers is slowing.
Companies are pulling back on hiring to keep profits healthy at a time of tepid demand. Meanwhile, immigration restrictions are crimping the availability of workers, lowering the number of jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs noted that the unemployment rate has risen slightly less than 0.2 percentage points over the past six months, despite weakening job growth, which “probably partly reflects weaker growth in the workforce due to tighter migration policies.”
“The slowdown in immigration means that we don’t need as many jobs to keep the labor market in balance as we did a year or two ago,” said Jed Kolko, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Some groups are faring worse than others in the tepid job market. The share of unemployed people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer rose to 25.7%—the highest since February 2022. That is a reflection of how it has gotten harder, in a low hiring environment, for those without work to find jobs.
The unemployment rate for Black workers rose to 7.5% from 7.2%, its highest level since October 2021.
Consumers are worried about the new tariffs that are starting to trickle through the economy.© Matt Genovese for WSJ
July’s figures were revised up by 6,000 to a gain of 79,000 for the month. June’s figures were revised from a gain of 14,000 to the 13,000 loss.
The Aug. 1 jobs report included huge negative revisions to the May and June numbers. Revisions happen because many of the businesses and government agencies that the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys each month don’t report data in time for that month’s jobs report.
Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after that month-ago report. At the time, Trump claimed in a social-media post that the government’s jobs numbers had been rigged to make him look bad. Trump nominated Erwin John “E.J.” Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency, as McEntarfer’s replacement. He will have to be confirmed by the Senate.
In an August interview with Fox News Digital, Antoni floated the idea of suspending the monthly jobs reports and publishing quarterly data instead. A White House official said that Antoni made the comment before he was nominated for the position and it isn’t his official stance as the nominee.
At a dinner with tech leaders on Thursday night, Trump said the “real” jobs numbers would come in a year when new technology sites open. “You’re gonna see job numbers like our country has never seen before,” Trump said.
(And this is why:):
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744,000 Jobs Cut: Highest Layoffs Since COVID Hit America
Nearly 750,000 Americans lost jobs in first half of 2025 as federal cuts and tariff fears drive historic layoff wave since COVID.
Restructuring is a normal process for any company when making changes in operations. Also, with robots entering the job market that will also reduce the manpower.
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