What a combination pedigree. Aggie and a Red Raider educated! Good Bull!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From: Opinionated Aggie Mom

Sent: Monday, March 16, 2020 7:00 PM

Subject: Thoughts on COVID

by kathrynvinson4629

Howdy friends,

So, I have seen a ton of information on social media concerning the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). Some is good info, some makes my head explode. I don’t like sharing my credentials like this – but for those of you that have met me only recently, or only know me from the interwebs, please allow me to explain.

My undergraduate degree is a B.S. in Biomedical Science from Texas A&M. My electives were all related to bacteriology, virology, disease spread, and physiology. Yes, I was the nerd that chose to take those classes rather than the easy ones. After I graduated, I went into clinical research. I have recruited and coordinated all phases of clinical research trials (in a lot of different indications), as well as managed a late phase site. I am a Certified Clinical Research Coordinator. Although I haven’t coordinated since the kids were born, I’ve maintained this certification to stay current in the field. I also hold a M.S. from Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center in Clinical Practice Management.

Since I graduated, the program has been renamed Healthcare Administration.
Long and short of it is – I do know what I’m talking about. Am I statistician? Not even close. Do I understand what I’m reading – yep. Do I know BS when I see it – yep.
So, let’s talk about a few things that I’ve seen lately.

· This is no more than a flu. OMG NO IT IS NOT. Some symptoms are similar, yes, but COVID-19 is disproportionately harming those over 60 (with mortality rates increasing dramatically with every ten years of age), and also those that are immune compromised. When I stay home, I am not staying home to protect myself. I’d likely get no more than a bad cold. My kids likely wouldn’t get anymore that sniffles. That’s a huge difference between this and influenza – it isn’t affecting otherwise healthy kiddos. We are staying away from social interaction to protect: our elderly population, those with cardio conditions, those with lung conditions, those with autoimmune diseases, those with cancer, the kids that have gone through advanced surgical procedures to save their lives at birth, the kids that need blood products every month to stay alive.

· Flu has killed more people than this. To this exact point in the disease outbreak, that is correct; however, we cannot look at the numbers this way. COVID has been actively monitored since the first report to the WHO on December 31, 2019. So, to compare data for less than 3 months to data for a year is just bad math. CDC estimates for the 2018-2019 flu season (the most recent season on which we have full data) shows that approximately 61,200 people died as a result of the flu that year. Simple math gives us an average daily death rate of about 168 people. What we have been seeing with COVID is easily twice to three times that rate. The death numbers outside of China for March 14 were 423 and for March 15 were 333. Now here’s a big number. The data that was released today by the WHO show that there 848 new deaths and 13,874 new confirmed cases outside of China. Let that sink in. In the span of two days – the number of deaths spiked to double and almost triple the number that is was prior.

· School closures are ridiculous. Well, no, they aren’t. Like I said – it isn’t the kiddos that are prone to getting sick with this – BUT – it doesn’t mean that they can’t become a vector of the disease. Regardless of how many times we tell them to wash their hands – let’s face it – they aren’t going to do so as we would wish. They are going to pick their nose. Then they are going to come home. What if grandpa lives with you?

· But my parents are healthy! That’s awesome. Mine are too. But, yeah, hypertension runs in my family. Oh, did I mention that people with hypertension are showing a drastic increase in representation in those that have died? Yeah, coronaviruses hijack a system in our body called the renin aldosterone angiotensin system to get into our cells. While epidemiologists aren’t sure yet WHY folks on ACE inhibitors and ARBs are showing higher mortality rates, they are showing these rates. And that’s scary.

Does the current situation in our nation/world suck? Absolutely! No one wants this. But, sticking our head in the sand and pretending that it isn’t something important is going to hurt more than it helps. I am not trying to be a fear monger here by any stretch. You don’t need 11,000 rolls of toilet paper or 18 cases of water bottles. The water lines haven’t been compromised, we aren’t under boil water notices. This is a respiratory disease – very, very few people experience any GI symptoms (and if I had to guess, those that have had such symptoms – its due to stress – I can get into that reaction later if you’d like).
The flattening of the curve that many of you may have heard about is to prevent our medical infrastructure from being overwhelmed. We only have so many hospital beds, so many ventilators, so many docs, nurses, respiratory techs…. The list goes on and on. If we can delay the peak of the disease, and in doing so lower that peak to levels that our medical systems can handle, we are doing ourselves a huge favor. Do you want your grandmother’s doctor to have to make a choice between intubating her and intubating the person in the bed next to her? Because that is what’s happening in Italy. Both people are loved. Both people have immense value. Do you want this to happen?

With that, we need to pray for our folks on the front lines of this. We immediately think of the doctors and nurses, but we also need to remember the massive numbers of staff at medical facilities – physician’s assistants, nurse practitioners, respiratory therapists, nurse anesthetists, administrative personnel, housekeeping and food service personnel.

Also – our first responders that are still going out every day to protect our communities. Let’s also not forget that we have amazing folks at our grocery stores, local restaurants, the truckers that restocking our markets, and even at school districts that are working to make sure that our communities are fed.

Much love to you all,
Kathryn Vinson, MS, CCRC

*****

kommonsentsjane