I TOLD YOU SO!
The Last Refuge

Monmouth University Pollster Patrick Murray Busted Manipulating Poll Data, then Lying About It…

Posted on August 22, 2016

by sundance

By now most CTH readers are familiar with the more notoriously biased polling manipulators.

One of those is Patrick Murray from Monmouth University [@PollsterPatrick on Twitter].

If you want to know where his political affiliations lie, you only need to read his twitter feed. Murray has also been on Fox News with Bill O’Reilly several times selling his polling results to the unwitting audience.

Today, Monmouth via Patrick Murray presents a presidential poll of Ohio voters. The actual raw data (pdf available here – see pg, 6 and 7) showed Donald Trump with a lead in the result; however, Murray changed the data through weighting to show Hillary Clinton with a lead.

“GOUSAAMER114” pointed out the manipulation:
Monmouth just announced that Clinton leads Trump 43-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick actually laid out what he did on pages 6 and 7 of the PDF.

He sampled 402 voters. In the unweighted sample, the split was 33.3R/29.3D/35.6I. With that split, Trump leads Clinton 41-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick re-weighted it to a 29R/33D/37I split. Nothing else was re-weighted.

It’s obvious Murray didn’t expect to be called out on it – because when confronted with what he did, pollster Patrick Murray flat out lied.

pollster patrick lie

You can do the math yourself and see that no “weighting” was done by “region, age, race, or gender” only by party ID.

Just as a reminder “weighting” is the term used for actually changing the raw data to reflect the “assumptions” the pollster puts into the anticipated turnout of the election.

Depending on the “assumptions” (guesses about who will vote), and the “weighting” therein, the entire poll outcome can be severely manipulated and even reversed.

View this document on Scribd

Personally, I like to tell these pollsters to just “show their work“, you know – like your math teacher used to force you to do in school in order to get full credit for the assignment. At that point most of the pollsters run and hide because essentially their argument is reduced to “trust me“. Yeah, good luck with that… LOL.

This is not the first time Monmouth, via Patrick Murray, has intentionally done this; and it won’t be the first time Murray has been gobsmackingly wrong as an outcome when the election actually takes place. Just ask president Mondale.

It feeds a media narrative for a cycle or two… and, after all, that’s really the intent here.

Republicans who are working to maintain their power by electing Hillary Clinton. We have reached that point in time where Donald Trump is the Republican nominee to become President of the United States. There are two choices before us – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

If you can’t get behind Donald Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton, you are neither a Republican nor a conservative and it’s obvious that you are either a liberal socialist communist democrat or a lily livered, mealy mouthed, spineless, gutless, forked tongue, politically correct, double speak, do nothing, go along to get along, afraid of your shadow, girly man or manly woman, new castrati eunuch elite republican establishment phony.

Those who claim to be Republican – former candidates, congressmen, senators, and activists – who don’t now support the choice of the Republican primary voters should be replaced. Every name you listed at the beginning of your program, and a multitude of others, should never again be referred to as a “Republican”, should be shunned by all conservatives, and denied any assistance from the party. There is NO reason to delay!

Some say that Donald Trump doesn’t have the political experience or temperament to be President – that he’s not “Presidential”. My question is simple! What has choosing candidates for President who are “Presidential” (as well as congressmen and senators) with political experience done for us??

OH, I forgot – soon to be 20 Trillion Dollars in debt, despised throughout the world, unable to defeat a terrorist group of 30,000 terrorists with the most powerful military in the world, unable to go to the toilet because of political correctness, and having to listen to or read posts from delirious inane, insipid twerps who think they are smarter than everyone else – Mitt Romney, Bill Kristol, George Will, Charles Krauthammer come to mind.

All these “wizards of smart” said Trump would not be in the race very long and called him a clown. Who is wearing the funny face now?? In 2008 and 2012 everyone went to Trump Tower to beg for Donald’s endorsement, support, and money which he gave freely, including $350,000 to the Republican Governors Association. His endorsement was the most sought after of any Republican donor.

It’s worth observing that as soon as he announced that he would run and use his money for his own campaign, THEY ALL TURNED ON HIM LIKE A PACK OF WILD DOGS. The reason is he’s NOT politically correct, he’s NOT afraid of them, he CAN NOT be controlled by them, and he CAN NOT be intimidated by them. The game is up, they are about to lose their positions of power over the people, and they are up in arms in an effort to stop him.

It’s not going to happen – Trump 2016/2020!

kommonsentsjane